Philip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner | Books & Literature » Non-Fiction

Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

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16 SEP 2019

Noah Brier

Why is this interesting? - The Foreign Policy Edition

Philip Tetlock outlines the problem of forecasting, explaining that the approach of hedgehogs (applying a single worldview) is less accurate than foxes (using many inputs). His research has found an inverse correlation between fame and accuracy among experts, particularly highlighting how hedgehogs, despite their confidence and simplicity, are often less reliable forecasters.

Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction is a groundbreaking book by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner on the science and art of making predictions. It draws from decades of research and the results of a government-funded forecasting tournament called the Good Judgment Project, which involved tens of thousands of ordinary people trying to predict global events. The authors reveal how some individuals became superforecasters and discuss how the art of good forecasting does not require powerful computers or arcane methods, but rather a set of skills that can be cultivated.

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