The Dead Cinderella Edition

Michael Hastings-Black (MHB) is a brand & business strategist. He runs the consulting shop AskMHB, and hosts Breakfast Club DC.

Michael here. One of my favorite weeks of the year begins with Selection Sunday, the official start of March Madness. That day, 68 teams get chosen for the NCAA Division 1 Men’s Basketball tournament. The bracket comes out. Millions of people make picks. Billions of dollars get wagered in pools. And then, once the games start on Thursday, chaos typically ensues. Little known teams and unsung players defeat favorites, becoming a ‘Cinderella Story’ as fans watch to see how long the magic will last. At least, that’s how it always went, from 1985 until recently. But, perhaps, not anymore.

This March, for the second consecutive year, no team seeded 13th through 16th won a first-round game. Favorites went 16-0 during the Friday games. 13 of 32 games were decided by 20 or more points, the most blowouts in tournament history. Now, you’d expect sportswriters and fans like me to bemoan the death of Cinderella here. But truthfully, these historic fairy tales had a bit of a wicked foundation.

Why is this interesting?

The reasons for the recent sea change are actually pretty straight forward.

Since 2021, college players have been able to get paid directly, via Name Image Likeness (NIL). Since 2024, players have also been able to move freely amongst the 365 D1 Men’s Basketball programs via the Transfer Portal. Rich programs can pay more. Talent flows to money. Smaller programs, which used to have players for four years, now function as farm systems for bigger ones. It resembles the global marketplace of soccer.

The truth is, the structure that made most Cinderellas possible was one that trapped unpaid athletes at their schools. Those teams were usually stocked with older players, who had a cohesive system and playing style. Perhaps they had a dynamic freshman or two. The one thing the players lacked was the ability to take their talents elsewhere within the collegiate system.

While coaches could switch programs with impunity, if a player transferred, they had to sit out an entire year. Large programs were in fact paying players, but it was all off-the-books, and the sums were smaller. (This 2014 article about SEC football boosters funneling cash is an amazing read)

Where does these leave us in 2026? For one thing, the tournament is now better for the players. It is, by most accounts, producing better basketball at the top. First-round ratings were up 6% this year, the highest ever recorded for the opening day. People are still watching. The Davids are just no longer slaying the Goliaths.

What the transfer portal and NIL have done to college basketball is what labor markets do when workers get more power: they allocate talent more efficiently. The best players end up at the best programs more quickly.

Results look more like what the rankings predicted, and thus March has less of its historical Madness.

Whether that’s good or bad depends upon who you think the tournament is for. If it’s for the players, then this is progress. If it’s for the mid-major fan base who might get a magical run, or the casual viewer who tunes in when the bracket comes out, then yes, something has been lost. We fans fondly remember teams like Butler, VCU & Loyola Chicago making deep runs in the 2010s, but those rose-colored glasses have a different tint when looking at the reality of money, labor and agency.

Many smaller programs now are adapting to the farm system role, explicitly selling players on the pipeline: come here, develop, get seen, transfer up. And the transfer portal goes both ways — experienced players can switch or move down to find a better role with more playing time. The system is finding its new equilibrium. And as it adjusts, the tournament and its fans will soon find new narrative threads, and new forms of fairytales. (MHB)